Right out of a spy movie

Here's an interesting story   that by and large hasn't been picked up by the media.  After a small explosion in a Copenhagen hotel lavatory last week, a man was subsequently arrested in a local park where he ran after the explosion.  The man was wearing, according to some reports, a suicide vest or some package tied around his waist. Police removed that from him with a remote cutting tool on a robot.  The man was isolated on the ground in the park for about 5 hours as the EOD operation proceeded. The man is keeping shtum and keeping his mouth zipped.  But he appears to have a number of false identity papers from a number of European countries.  What's also interesting is that the man has a prosthetic leg (below the knee) and even the serial number for that has been removed presumably to prevent tracing its source.  Reminds me of the film "The Fugitive" where the bad guy had a prosthetic arm.

So, what to think...? In typical modern European political correctness the police are not implying or hinting anything specific... but here's my thoughts:

1.  Only a terrorist would wear an explosive suicide vest. So he's a terrorist and not some sort of spook.  Suicide belts are used by extremist islamic terrorists or Tamil terrorists, by and large, so the chances are he's an extremist Islamic suicide bomber, in my humble opinion. A pistol was also recovered from the scene of the explosion, dropped when the accidental explosion occurred. It's unlikely the pistol was brought into the country by air, so the man came in by land or was armed with the pistol by locals.

2. He looks European or perhaps North African. But could be middle eastern.

3. There's an odd mix of professionalism and the usual amateur aspects here. The false papers and the ability to keep shtum, and the removal of serial numbers from his prosthetic leg indicates a degree of professionalism not always seen from Al Qaida suicide bombers.  But the guy did cause a small explosion in a hotel toilet (shades of Ramzi Yousef there) and did get captured later.

4. The loss of a leg is intriguing. A significant number of "Afghan veterans" from the bad guys side have such injuries from Russian anti personnel mines in the 80s.  So too have some Algerian bad guys.

5. Some reports suggest the man had false papers from a number of countries including Luxembourg, and others report he had a false Belgian passport. The latter is interesting since Al Qaida are known to have obtained Belgian passports. The two Al Qaida suicide bombers who killed Commander Massoud in Afghanistan in 2001 had false Belgian passports as have other arrested Al Qaida operatives. The man arrested had bought a bus ticket to Brussels.

6. Some press reports cite sources close to the investigation, that among the man’s possessions was a map with a ring around the main office of Jyllands-Posten newspaper in Århus, Denmark  The newspaper is infamous for the publication of the cartoons depicting the prophet Mohammed.

7. To me, the explosion sounds like an improvised detonator exploded, he dropped the pistol and ran. Some reports suggest he injured his face and arm in the explosion.  I think there's a good chance he may have been preparing the device.  But if so that doesn't fit with the purchase of a bus ticket.

8. The explosion occurred the day before the anniversary of 9/11.  Al Qaida occasionally have tried to mark anniversaries.

9. The suspect speaks French, German and English. An interesting mix and perhaps indicative of a european upbringing or residence.

10. Some reports suggest he is in his twenties, others that he is "about 40"

11. He had stayed 2 nights in the hotel but had checked out of his room the morning of the explosion. The explosion occurred in the publicly available lavatories in the hotel.

12.  Its not beyond the bounds of possibility that the main intent might have been assassination by pistol, with the bomb as a "just in case" he was captured. Such tactics have been seen in Afghanistan.  But with the initiator having prematurely exploded he had no means to detonate the device when captured in the nearby park.

Lets see what develops...

Update on Tuesday, September 14, 2010 at 4:54PM by Roger Davies

More details are trickling out. Here's a mug shot of the man showing injuries, which I think are consistent with an improvised detonator going off..

What is perhaps interesting is that in the first picture, taken from a CCTV camera the day before the incident the suspect had a goatee beard. On the day of the incident he had shaved it off. In some Al Qaida suicide bombing incidents the terrorists have also shaved their beards.

And for interest, here's a picture of the prosthetic leg. don't giggle, this is serious... It appears to be a high quality European prosthetic leg.  It intrigues me that the suspect appeared in court without his leg and on crutches.... Now that's interesting. If all it was was a prosthetic leg why wouldn't they let him keep it?  Perhaps there is a hint that it was used to maybe smuggle components and removed as "evidence"?

Update on Wednesday, September 15, 2010 at 7:19PM by Roger Davies

Latest news is that Copenhagen Police believe the man is a 24 year old Chechen boxer, resident in Belgium called Lors Doukaev. And there was me thinking hmm, his nose looks like a boxer's nose.... but I didn't mention it....