Delete Al Qaeda, Insert Haqqani

The ongoing issue of Pakistan’s influence over violent groups is extremely complex and deeply disturbing. My earlier blogs have referenced the use of violent gangs by Pakistani political parties in Karachi, and I have highlighted concerns over the level of terrorist convictions being achieved by the country. The national government’s/ISI’s  influence over LeT and the Haqqani group, past and present is under scrutiny.  It seems that sponsoring deniable violence is a common activity in that country and it’s a dangerous game.  In another parallel, the Haqqani’s , like the Karachi gangs, are also using violent videos to publicize and threaten the population – see this story here on their horrific methods and levels of violence.

Ten days ago Admiral Mullen made a statement to the Senate Armed services Committee that can only be described as shocking and significant. He made clear his views about the ISIs level of control over the Haqqani network. His statement is worthy of word for word analysis.  Here are some important excerpts:

•  The Haqqani network as a veritable arm of Pakistan's Internal Services Intelligence agency
•  With ISI support, Haqqani operatives planned and conducted that truck bomb attack, as well as the assault on our embassy. We also have credible intelligence that they were behind the June 28th attack on the Inter- Continental Hotel in Kabul and a host of other smaller but effective operations.
• The support of terrorism is part of their national strategy.

A key sub story in this situation is this; On 8 September the ISAF commander, General Allen, told the head of the Pakistani Army, General Kayani, that two truck bombs had been constructed in Pakistan and were heading for Afghanistan.  It is clear that Allen knew who had constructed the truck bombs, where they were headed and who was responsible. I don’t underestimate the intelligence that Allen and Mullen had at their fingertips. He asked the Kayani to interdict the trucks, and Kayani agreed.  He said he would “make a phone call”.  Two days later one of the truck bombs reached its target, not far from Kabul.  77 US soldiers were wounded.  There is deep frustration that the Pakistani’s response was ineffectual.

I doubt General Mattis, who visited Kayani a week ago was anything less than the blunt and frank leader he usually is (see my earlier blogs posts on the man.) In contrast Mullen is pretty mild mannered.  I also hear that the new head of the CIA , General Petraeus visited the ISI last week.  I think that’s called a full court press.

So, to be absolutely clear, Pakistan, a nation whom the US is funding, whom the US regards as a key ally in the region, is actually supporting the terrorism which the US seeks to defeat.  In the last few days there has been a flurry of suggestions in the beltway that Mullen has overstated the case, saying that perhaps the ISI were not operationally directing the Haqqani attacks. But no-one (other than Pakistan) is denying that the ISI are providing support to this nasty and dangerous group who target ISAF in Afghanistan. And no-one outside Pakistan believes the Pakistanis. I think the pressure on Pakistan will be relentless in coming months, but I’m not sure how they will respond.  But I expect that the word “Haqqani” will come to replace "Al Qaeda".