Scud Marks

Syria has apparently/allegedly supplied or is thinking about supplying some Scud B’s from its inventory to Hezbollah in a move that will up the ante again in the region.  It’s an interesting development and in some ways a logical progression of the ever increasing range of Hezbollah rocket artillery.  It is interesting that here  it becomes apparent that the US has warned Syria not to do this FOUR times in recent months.  That's significant I think.

 A couple of other thoughts:

• Some commentators doubt if Hezbollah has the technical capacity to successfully launch the missiles – this, I think, is a wrong assessment. In the 1994 civil war in Yemen, both sides pinged Scuds at each other and frankly Hezbollah’s rocketry skills are probably way ahead of either of those groups.  And really it doesn’t matter if its accurate or not – the political implications of the Scud attack are way bigger then the practical consequences. The missile would only need to dribble over the border and hit a sheep in a field outside Kiryat Shmona.
• The size of the Scud TEL will challenge even Hezbollah’s excellent camouflage and concealment skills.  It’s a big target for those Israeli Air force guys.  Mind you the Scud hunting of Saddam Hussein’s forces in 1991 wasn’t exactly a resounding success.
• Remember that Israel has been attacked by Scuds before, from Saddam Hussein in 1991  - and they managed that without being drawn into that war.  But there are less constraints now and this is different.

All in all I’d say watch the space…. But when were things ever settled in the Syria/Lebanon/Israel conjunction?

Comments

[Tim Haines]

"Some commentators doubt if Hezbollah has the technical capacity to successfully launch the missiles" - Hezbollah were able to hit the Israeli corvet INS Hanit with an Iranian made shore-to-ship missile (C-701 or similar?) during the conflict in Lebanon in the summer of '06.

My knowledge of rocketry is limited, and I can't comment on the relative complexities of two rocket types, but in a broad sense, this is indicative of a good level of rocket capability.

There was considerable open source speculation at the time of the Hanit stike that IRGC members were present on the ground when the rockets were fired, and had operational control of the launch. This would go a long way to resolving any technical difficulties Hezbollah might have had. (Although it's probably worth remembering that another rocket, presumably also aimed at the Hanit, caused some considerable suprise to a civilian Egyptian vessel that was pootling about in the vicinity)

[Roger Davies]

Good comment from Tim. I think the main issue with expertise will be that the Scud has a liquid fuel motor and Hezbollah's other rockets (including the C-701) are solid fuel. This liquid fuel makes preparation of the missile a more complex procedure. However, as Tim notes maybe there are experts "to hand" courtesy of IRGC. The question of how much control IRGC representatives have over missile launch is a key issue but perhaps one it will be difficult to discern.

I think one of the issues that the presence of Scuds might have is the consequence of its large warhead size - small rockets don't have a warhead payload that makes it worthwhile fiddling with.... but with a Scud, a number of scary options open up.