Iraqi Political Sandwich

The raison d’etre of this blog suggests that I’m not really interested in the political aspects of terrorism and wish to concentrate on the operational and technical levels. But I’m going to break that half-hearted rule here. I’m worried about emerging political dynamics in Iraq, and in particular a possibility of a growing Syrian influence in events in Iraq and a fall out between Prime Minister al-Maliki and Syria’s Ba’athist regime. Here’s the context:

• On 18 August al-Maliki visited Syria for talks with President Assad. Maliki came bearing gifts but also demands. He offered Syria significant concession in trade and oil, but in return wanted 271 Ba’athist Iraqis, currently in refuge in Syria. While the official communiqué released by the two governments gave the usual blather about mutual collaboration between themselves, I hear from good sources that in actuality Assad had said he wouldn’t release to Iraq a single Iraqi Ba’athist not even for $100 million. “Take your papers and leave” are the words suggested.
• The very next day on 19 August a very significant series of large VBIEDS detonated across Baghdad. Not against the public, not against the Americans, but very specifically against the ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Many in Baghdad do not doubt that that Syria at the very least had a hand in some form or other, and the “message” was that Maliki was weak and couldn’t provide Iraq with the security it needs. The attacks fly in the face of Maliki’s claim that the violence in Iraq is nearly dead, and suggests that the security apparatus is nowhere near up to scratch.
• For context, this is not the first time, perhaps, that Syria has exerted muscle in this way. In late 2004, Assad summoned Rafiq al-Hariri to Damascus from Lebanon to demand he supported the presidency of Emil Lahoud. Hariri didn’t toe the line. Hariri was killed in February 2005 in suicide VBIED attack.
• Since the events in August, relations between Syria and Iraq have further deteriorated and ambassadors have been withdrawn. Maliki is fighting for his political life and has separated from the pro Iranian shia block in parliament.

So the current Iraqi Prime minister is being squeezed from Syria in the west and Iran in the east. And there’s a general election in January. No bets taken on an increase in violence between now and then.