Swat Valley displacement
Tuesday, June 16, 2009 at 4:45PM With the Pakistan Army now heavily engaged in areas like the Swat valley and by all accounts squeezing the enemy elsewhere in the northwest, (next will be an assault on Baitullah Mehsud in South Waziristan without doubt), I wonder if we will get some interesting displacements. Although admittedly on a larger scale, when Afghanistan was squeezed in the 80s they went to the Sudan. When Sudan was squeezed they went back Afghanistan. When Afghanistan was squeezed they went to Pakistan. Although this is smaller in scale, and there is still plenty of space in the FATA and NWFP I wonder if we will get some international displacement, and if so where....?
I sense that Pakistan's determination is a few notches higher than their previous challenges to Mehsud. Of course Mehsud won't roll over and bug out without stoking up challenges for the government across the country, but some of his supporters and fellow-travellers (from many different militant sets) might find the water too hot and move on.... where might they go?
Roger Davies
It seems at least some of Baitullah Mehsud's guys have displaced to Karachi, according to this report. Note that 5 of an alleged 12 were killed when their apartment was raided in the middle of the night and the rest, according to this report escaped. Other reports suggest different figures and some wounded too. This quote from the article:
Local politicians and security officials have repeatedly warned that Islamist militants fleeing the military offensives in country's northwestern region are setting-up sanctuaries in Karachi.
OK, you have a tip off and you raid an apartment and 6 or 7 escape..... what would be the response from the public if that happened in London or New York?
Reader Comments (2)
Going into Waziristan will erode the region's utility as a safe base of operation. Some analysis out of HMS is that there is alternative sanctuary for facilitators and key figures in the AQ Network, including regionally in Central Asia, for the Middle East there is Yemen, and as you refer to historically, there is still East Africa.
The AQ network will use its loose non-hierarchical structure to its advantage. As it draws back in some areas, it will grow in others!
When you say "Central Asia", can you be more specific. Are there any indications of heigtened activity in the "Stans?" If so, where?